OPEC+ share of global oil market to exceed 50% by 2040

Global supply of oil and other liquid hydrocarbons will increase by 20.6 million barrels per day by 2050 compared to 2024 and will reach 123 million bpd, while from 2040, more than half of all supplies will come from OPEC+ countries, OPEC said in its annual review, 1news.media informs via Interfax.

It said non-OPEC+ countries would retain the biggest share at approximately 52% until 2035, but the trend would start to change after that. Supply from these countries will peak at 59.8 million bpd by 2035, after which it will start to fall, reaching 58.9 million bpd by 2050.

This is due primarily to lower supply in the Americas, led by the United States. Their production is expected to peak in 2030 at 29.6 million bpd, including 23.1 million bpd in the United States, after which a gradual decline will begin. Total production of oil and liquid hydrocarbons in these countries will reach 27.3 million bpd by 2050. It will fall to 19.6 million bpd in the United States.

As a result of this, and amid projected further growth in global demand for oil, the importance of liquid hydrocarbons from OPEC+ countries increases, since they will provide most of the necessary supply growth in the second half of the forecast, OPEC said.

It said that by 2040, OPEC+ countries would overtake those outside the alliance in terms of oil supply volumes - 60.4 million bpd versus 59.7 million bpd, and by 2050 the gap would increase to 64.1 million bpd and 58.9 million bpd. Thus, in 25 years, OPEC+'s share of the global oil market could increase to 52% from the current 48%.